Bilinear modulation models for seasonal tables of counts

We propose generalized linear models for time or age-time tables of seasonal counts, with the goal of better understanding seasonal patterns in the data. The linear predictor contains a smooth component for the trend and the product of a smooth component (the modulation) and a periodic time series of arbitrary shape (the carrier wave). To model rates, a population offset is added. Two-dimensional trends and modulation are estimated using a tensor product B-spline basis of moderate dimension. Further smoothness is ensured using difference penalties on the rows and columns of the tensor product coefficients. The optimal penalty tuning parameters are chosen based on minimization of a quasi-information criterion. Computationally efficient estimation is achieved using array regression techniques, avoiding excessively large matrices. The model is applied to female death rate in the US due to cerebrovascular diseases and respiratory diseases

Progression and Forecast of a Curated Web-of-Trust: A Study on the Debian Project's Cryptographic Keyring

The Debian project is one of the largest free software undertakings worldwide. It is geographically distributed, and participation in the project is done on a voluntary basis, without a single formal employee or directly funded person. As we will explain, due to the nature of the project, its authentication needs are very strict — User/password schemes are way surpassed, and centralized trust management schemes such as PKI are not compatible with its distributed and flat organization; fully decentralized schemes such as the PGP Web of Trust are insuficient by themselves. The Debian project has solved this need by using what we termed a ``curated Web of Trust''. We will explain some lessons learned from a massive key migration process that was triggered in 2014. We will present the social insight we have found from examining the relationships expressed as signatures in this curated Web of Trust, some recommendations on personal key-signing policies, and a statistical study and forecast on aging, refreshment and survival of project participants stemming from an analysis on their key-handling

On the combination of omics data for prediction of binary outcomes

Enrichment of predictive models with new biomolecular markers is an important task in high-dimensional omic applications. Increasingly, clinical studies include several sets of such omics markers available for each patient, measuring different levels of biological variation. As a result, one of the main challenges in predictive research is the integration of different sources of omic biomarkers for the prediction of health traits. We review several approaches for the combination of omic markers in the context of binary outcome prediction, all based on double cross-validation and regularized regression models. We evaluate their performance in terms of calibration and discrimination and we compare their performance with respect to single-omic source predictions. We illustrate the methods through the analysis of two real datasets. On the one hand, we consider the combination of two fractions of proteomic mass spectrometry for the calibration of a diagnostic rule for the detection of early-stage breast cancer. On the other hand, we consider transcriptomics and metabolomics as predictors of obesity using data from the Dietary, Lifestyle, and Genetic determinants of Obesity and Metabolic syndrome (DILGOM) study, a population-based cohort, from Finland

Testing the additional predictive value of high-dimensional molecular data

While high-dimensional molecular data such as microarray gene expression data have been used for disease outcome prediction or diagnosis purposes for about ten years in biomedical research, the question of the additional predictive value of such data given that classical predictors are already available has long been under-considered in the bioinformatics literature. We suggest an intuitive permutation-based testing procedure for assessing the additional predictive value of high-dimensional molecular data. Our method combines two well-known statistical tools: logistic regression and boosting regression. We give clear advice for the choice of the only method parameter (the number of boosting iterations). In simulations, our novel approach is found to have very good power in different settings, e.g. few strong predictors or many weak predictors. For illustrative purpose, it is applied to two publicly available cancer data sets. Our simple and computationally efficient approach can be used to globally assess the additional predictive power of a large number of candidate predictors given that a few clinical covariates or a known prognostic index are already available

Interaction effects of region-level GDP per capita and age on labour market transition rates in Italy

Abstract The aim of this paper is to measure the effect of the interaction between age for the population of males and females aged 18 to 74 and region-level GDP per capita on labour market transition probabilities in Italy. We compare different occupational states in a sample of males and females who remained in their region of residence at two points in time (12 months apart). We estimate the transition probabilities using a flexible hierarchical logit model with interaction effects between worker age and region-level GDP per capita. We apply this model using longitudinal data from the Italian Labour Force Survey that cover the 2004–2013 period. We find empirical support for the assumption that people in the same age cohort have different labour market opportunities based on the level of GDP per capita in their region of residence. These differences are particularly relevant among younger workers

A boosting method for maximizing the partial area under the ROC curve

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve is a fundamental tool to assess the discriminant performance for not only a single marker but also a score function combining multiple markers. The area under the ROC curve (AUC) for a score function measures the intrinsic ability for the score function to discriminate between the controls and cases. Recently, the partial AUC (pAUC) has been paid more attention than the AUC, because a suitable range of the false positive rate can be focused according to various clinical situations. However, existing pAUC-based methods only handle a few markers and do not take nonlinear combination of markers into consideration.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>We have developed a new statistical method that focuses on the pAUC based on a boosting technique. The markers are combined componentially for maximizing the pAUC in the boosting algorithm using natural cubic splines or decision stumps (single-level decision trees), according to the values of markers (continuous or discrete). We show that the resulting score plots are useful for understanding how each marker is associated with the outcome variable. We compare the performance of the proposed boosting method with those of other existing methods, and demonstrate the utility using real data sets. As a result, we have much better discrimination performances in the sense of the pAUC in both simulation studies and real data analysis.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>The proposed method addresses how to combine the markers after a pAUC-based filtering procedure in high dimensional setting. Hence, it provides a consistent way of analyzing data based on the pAUC from maker selection to marker combination for discrimination problems. The method can capture not only linear but also nonlinear association between the outcome variable and the markers, about which the nonlinearity is known to be necessary in general for the maximization of the pAUC. The method also puts importance on the accuracy of classification performance as well as interpretability of the association, by offering simple and smooth resultant score plots for each marker.</p